23 October 2007

10m more people in UK by 2031

Usual disclaimers: this is based on current trends and could be affected by events, government policies etc. But it looks like we should brace ourselves for further house-price rises above inflation, increased religiosity in society due to immigration of Christians and Muslims from the wider world. I would guess also that this will help to offset our pensions crisis somewhat but will put further strain on the environment. "long-term assumptions of future fertility, life expectancy and migration are higher than past projections. Researchers have raised migration estimates from a net rise of 145,000 per year in 2004 to 190,000-plus each year. They believe that almost half of the UK's population rise of 4.4 million over the next decade will be fuelled by migration. The study also revealed the changing structure of Britain's ageing society as people live longer."
The question I'm asking is how we should respond church-wise. We will have, in all probability, more aging members but also more minority ethnic group members. The need for 'fresh expressions' will continue and a premium will be placed on leadership which is able to be culturally flexible and perhaps even linguistically versatile (who'd have thought ten years ago that we'd need French-speaking liturgical resources in Gateshead?)
What else will these figures imply? Higher proportions of incomes tied up in housing and food bills (peak oil plus less agricultural land locally would push up food prices, probably) so finances for church activities might be harder hit. Therefore continuing to enable tent-maker ministries and low-resource forms of church will be important. The challenge of Islam both in terms of integration and combatting the Saudi-funded Wahhabi and Salafi versions will probably continue to be vitally important.
10m more people in UK by 2031, say researchers | Special reports | Guardian Unlimited

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