Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts

13 August 2025

USAican RW Christians misunderstand "socialism"

 The other day on Mastodon, I came across an article about left-wing politics and Jesus. It appears to have been written from a Christian-nationalism sort of perspective and, well it seems so far off: it's a straw-man misunderstanding coupled with prejudice.  I feel it deserves comment at least for my own interest. The first para is odd, really, an 'argument' that needs unpacking to see that it is more a pretext for a prejudice, I think. 

"One of the most bizarre arguments for “Jesus was a socialist” comes from people who say, “Jesus healed and fed people for free; therefore, He was a socialist.” When governments can feed people for free by multiplying loaves and fishes, heal people by touch or a word from a government agency, or raise people from the dead, then I’ll become a socialist. The thing of it is, people who want free college and free healthcare and politicians who promise such things believe that government is god and can turn stones into bread. Our nation’s motto is “In God We Trust” which means in practice “In Government We Trust.” As often as they try, governments can’t perform miracles."

There are several things going on in this. First, though, I think that I've not really come across Jesus offering 'free healthcare' as an argument for socialism in the way laid out there. The argument doesn't get made that way; the author is mischaracterising the thinking for the sake of dismissing a label. I think that perhaps the author has seen some people taking issue with right-wing perspectives which seem to argue that there's a Christian moral imperative not to have government providing things like healthcare for free. 

Some rhetorical responses do indeed suggest that the Jesus that right-wingers purport to follow did actually give this away for free at the point of need. It's not an argument for socialised healthcare when used like that, it's a device to indicate that the right winger has a potential incompatibility hidden in their presuppositions. It is to suggest that there may be more discussion to be had and that perhaps the right-winger has missed something about how the values they espouse might actually need more consideration. 

The actual arguments for socialism from a Christian value base lie elsewhere and are more widely drawn. So to dismiss 'socialism' this way fails to deal with the main arguments of Christian Socialists and contributes to a straw man approach which may make supporters feel like they are 'owing the libs' or something, but really fails to convince people who actually do hold the position.

There's also a practical theological issue about the matter of miracles and healthcare (or other things that a government might do). I think my concern about the gesture towards a position outlined in that blog post could be illustrated as a big contribution to problematising the position as stated.

I have known several Christian medical doctors and health workers during my life. They believe the healthcare they offer and the health improvements they bring about by their service and efforts are God's work. They consider that in some way they are continuing the healing work of Jesus albeit by normally non-miraculous means. They are using their God-given talents to bring about a life which is more abundant for those they treat. Is that not God's work? Or does only 'miraculous' healing count? The lack of 'miracle' (and what is that exactly?) to accomplish something does not mean it's not something that God wants. I think that feeding hungry people using logistics  to transport and distribute food from places that have enough to share is godly. I don't dismiss it as a Christian simply because it doesn't involve miraculous multiplication. I don't dismiss God's provision because the money arrives in a bank account as a result of a contract rather than from the mouth of a fish.

Assuming that we are happy to acknowledge that a medic's work, in broad terms at least, is God's work, then the next matter to consider is this. Is it good or not for them to seek to work in such a way that the poorest of their patients are able to access their help? Is it a bad thing for their care to be free at the point of access? Or are we going to be comfortable with situations where only the relatively rich can benefit from good healthcare? As a Christian I can't be comfortable with that latter situation. 

-And by the way that's not, strictly speaking, 'socialism' -many who are not socialist in parts of the world that have systems of healthcare that are free at the point of use nevertheless consider that it is right and proper to have free healthcare, right wingers included. In my own country, even right wingers make arguments about healthcare provision explicitly reassuring their audiences that they think it should be free at the point of delivery. They have even framed it as helping people to participate in the (capitalist) economy.

Back to that article: it is simply not true that people who think that healthcare, education etc should be free at the point of access, believe that the government is God. Nope. Never happens. I know no-one, not one single person, who does. 

Ironically, of course, it can appear that the kind of nationalism espoused by RWers seems to raise questions about idolatry -of nation. (And it's not enough to claim that a nation and its government are enacting God's agenda -because that's a claim that can be made, and has been made, for other nations and forms of government. It's only the start of a discussion not an end).

So what does drive many Christians toward 'socialist' approaches to thinking about public life and government policy?

Well for most it's rooted in considering the outworking of loving others as oneself, loving neighbour. Let's recall that such love is about willing and working towards the best for our neighbours. To be a bit more explicit: loving others as ourselves? -Well, on the whole, I exercise a degree of care towards myself by going to a medical appointment when something is 'up'. I therefore think that loving my neighbour as myself means making sure that they can do the same. (I vote accordingly and I lobby politicians and involve myself in political debate to try to retain that situation and to have it improve if possible; I see that as part of the outworking of Christian discipleship in pursuit of Christian values.) 

I note that this is still not 'socialism' but socialism is one of the political options that it is compatible with. However, a further consideration is a critique of capitalism. Let's say to start with that for Christians on the left, capitalism looks a lot like 'Mammon' and the 'love of money' -which 1 Timother 6:10 reminds us is "a root of all kinds of evil". Left-leaning Christians, then, on the basis of Jesus' and apostolic teaching are decidedly skeptical about letting what appears to be the idolatry of wealth be in the societal driving seat. It's hard to read James 2 and not feel that supporting making the rich richer and further impoverishing the poor is a major incompatibility with Christian discipleship and constitutes giving a pass to the moral hazard wealth clearly is in Christian teaching -don't forget James is merely expounding Jesus's warnings about wealth, selfishness and the value of each person including the poor and marginalised. 

Note also that James 4:1-6 seems to suggest that wealth is, in effect, stealing from the poor. It is the result of power relations that enable the haves to further extract value from the have-nots to their detriment. That passage implies that God considers that even the humblest in society are due the means to live dignified lives. Jesus's teaching and ministry indicate that the poorest are at the heart of God's concern (and incidentally, this fulfills the teaching of the Hebrew scriptures). To maintain an argument for the Christian-ness of capitalism, it has to be be convincingly argued that it both places the poorest and improving their lot at the heart of policy and concern across society and that there are effective and present ways to mitigate the moral hazard relating to wealth accumulation.

Coming back to James ... "Ah but...!" "Well, actually ..." Yes, yes: there is more to be said to close the gap between then and now and the circumstances in view. But let's note that the RW Christian perspectives often need similar further investigation and more careful extrapolation too. I'll not do that here and now. But I have written about related matters and will continue to do so. Suffice to say, for now, that I think that the most natural politics to come away from Jesus' teaching with is a politics that places improving the lot of the poorest at the heart and which is very skeptical about allowing greed and wealth accumulation to be in the driving seat of society. It also adds weight to the observation that 'trickle-down' economics doesn't seem to happen in practice. This is not only an observation of the last 40 years of western governmental policies, it is an observation of several thousand years.



23 January 2024

Starting to think about Limitarianism

 I came across this article recently that explores something I'd recently begun thinking about. In part I was thinking about it because of recent conversations and also the persistent thought that there must be a limit to how much one can spend in a lifetime and perhaps that should inform a policy about how much one should accumulate.

“I contend,” Robeyns argues, “that for people who live in a society with a solid pension system, the ethical limit [on wealth] will be around 1 million pounds, dollars or euros per person.” 

This lines up with what I had started out thinking. Partly noting that when I was a kid, being a millionaire was a big thing. No-one was, as far as know /knew a billionaire. It seemed to me that multimillionaires had more than enough for a rather nice looking life in material terms.

A lot of people say: ‘I’ve been thinking this all my life.’ 

There is even some recognition among some of the ultra wealthy that something must change:

    Some, such as the Irish-American billionaire Chuck Feeney, who made his money from a monopoly of duty-free shops at airports, have enjoyed nothing so much as giving all their money away. Mackenzie Scott, ex-wife of Jeff Bezos, has been shedding billions of her divorce settlement a year, on the basis that “she is giving it back to [society] where it came from”. Others, such as the entertainment heiress Abigail Disney, or the British-based group “Patriotic Millionaires”, are sympathetic to the fundamentals of Robeyns’s ideas, recognising that “policies that favour the richest are unsustainable”.

All of which reinforces my sense that perhaps we should be talking and thinking about this way more than we do. The thing that I'm most interested in at this point, is the reasons for proposing this and making sure we have a solid basis for making the proposal founded in ethically defensible insights. And I think this bit gets us started on that.

... the idea that any discussion of a limit to wealth must be born out of envy, for example; or that most seductive of all myths, that people somehow deserve the wealth (or poverty) of their lives – that multimillions are made mostly by hard work and talent, not by luck and vast inequalities of opportunity... Despite the fact that “trickle down” economics has long been discredited as an idea, we apparently remain in thrall to the mythology of “wealth creators”

So what sorts of principles would soundly and ethically undergird a limitarian set of policies? Taking the hints above into account. We'd need to have a good sense of 'desert' in relation to wealth 'creation' or accumulation. This would include considerations of 'luck' and social-positionality (aka. systemic factors relating to opportunity). I guess also that the vast multiples in relation to basic wages being gained by the very rich also need to be questioned in relation to the influence power that such wealth buys; it accumulates power because to a large degree wealth is power. In a democracy, we can't ignore this.

However, I think that there are some other fairly fundamental things to pay attention to. Most fundamental of all is to think about how wealth is created and distributed. Another story: when I started work at around 13 years old (part time, I think there was a maximum of 12 hours or so a week we could legally work because we were also at school) I began to think about why it was pay rates were so different. We were told  that a different shop further down the mall paid their workers much better (but then their prices were higher too). I became aware that the more senior one was, the more pay people got. But I wasn't entirely sure why. I had gained the impression that hard work was praiseworthy and so I had an idea that hard work ought to be better rewarded. 'Hard' work being work that was physically or mentally more tiring -and that would include longer hours. I came to appreciate that there may be a case for paying someone for responsibility, that is if they had to make decisions which could affect other people's well-being to some degree. I guess that would amount to a form of 'hard work' in terms of emotional labour -especially anxiety.

In the light of such musings, it does feel ridiculous that someone should be paid multiples of many thousands in relation to the lowest paid. It is hard to find some kind of justification in terms of hard work or even rewarding risk or innovation for such differentials. On the other hand, what it does seem that such differentials are 'rewarding' is the holding of power: power to set rates (whether by rent or positional/hierarchical means). However, power is not necessarily fair, and usually is not unless held to account. Obviously, this consideration of pay and reward, shades into thinking about monopolistic power in markets which is a helpful reference point, I suspect.

Relatedly, there is sometimes an argument made to pay higher rates to attract people to do jobs that might be hard to recruit for otherwise. But it seems to me that this manifestly does not work in the case of menial and dirty jobs which are often among the worst paid and I can't really see why a CEO is 'worth' so much more than a sewage worker. In fact, to me, by standards of hard work and slog it seems to me they may be the wrong way round in remuneration. Furthermore, in terms of the anxiety-labour mentioned above, it seems to me that in actual fact, many CEO's are being rewarded for not caring and are in fact rewarded for failure oftentimes: they "fall upward".

I've just sketched out my concerns about concerns regarding reward and pay. I think that a lot of differentials are actually about social and hierarchical power in a way that is fundamentally similar to the power of monopolies or oligopolies to be rate setters in a market. My concern going forward from here, is to consider what kind of basis there might be for limiting the pay and wealth of the richest. It seems to me that this most fundamentally requires a consideration of 'just' 'rewards'. This would also require us to think about what unjust rewards are and how they work -which I've begun to alight on in considering hierarchical power ("controlling the purse strings", in popular saying). 

It feels now like this is a kind of introduction. I think that I will try to develop some of these threads a bit further is subsequent posts rather than here.

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PS -as many blogs no longer link to an article or other web address at the title, I think that there's a danger that some readers may not be aware of this former custom that you can click on the title to be taken to the main post or article or page being commented on. In case that's so, the article quoted above at several points can be found here: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2024/jan/21/how-much-personal-wealth-is-enough-ingrid-robeyns-limitarianism

16 September 2021

I learned everything* we need to know about economics from a trading game

For a number of years, I've been using some odd moments to re-connect with economics which I learnt as a subject for A-level and which learning I have been able to marshal to understand the basic issues in national and political life ever since, to some degree. One of the consistently distressing things, given that background, has been the Thatcherite 'handbag economics' which essentially persisted having become the new common sense through to more recent times and enabled austerity politics to take hold. 

A couple of paragraphs digression...

It's worth noting too, that despite the austerity narrative, the Cons were not averse to using the 'magic money tree' quite copiously. In doing so they showed that it is the 'where the money is deployed to' in respect of the production of money that is at issue. -Because they paid out without taxing it back or calling in the debt. So how they justify 'where we don't insert money into the economy' -by a narrative of unaffordability- is really the thing to watch. "Do as I say not as I do".

Clearly by this point, the household budget analogy of Thatcher (often called 'handbag economics) had become so commonplace that it was straightforward to deploy it to justify political choices as if they were 'just the way things are'. It could take hold because it had the open goal of widespread ignorance about what was actually happening at a macro economic level. In that way austerity came to be seen as 'just common sense' (however unpalatable) to so many people. Unhappily also this affected many politicians most of whom should have known better, not least because they are, in a sense, supposedly paid to know better. But it seems that most of them didn't actually understand macroeconomics -as polling by Positive Money demonstrated. I'm hoping the following exploration of a certain famous trading game's economy will help readers to become better informed than many MPs appear to be. This may help those MPs raise their game (pardon the pun).

Back to the main points

So, one of the things that I've been musing over for a little while, is how we might displace the cultural fastness of the idea of handbag economics with something more accurate and helpful. In response to this challenge, one of the images or ideas that I keep coming back to is a certain famous property trading game. I think in part because when I was learning about fiscal policy I managed to persuade my sisters to play a game of Monopoly (tm) with me where I, as banker, was given tax-raising powers. This gave me the chance to observe over the course of a game, the contrast with all the other times we'd played. What we found, unsurprisingly, was that greater equality between players was possible and could be maintained for a long time. We observed that the fiscal (a progressive tax) mechanism countered the monopolistic dynamic of the game which is 'to those who have more will be given' -ie towards monopoly at the expense of others -'beggar your neighbour'. Of course, the game was originally designed to teach about just this monopolistic dynamic and I think I may have inadvertently reproduced to some degree, the other -original version- of what was originally called 'The Landlords' Game' which was a version with a land value tax embedded in the rules. I understand the two were to be used together as a learning tool.(*2) 

Since then one of the things I have found myself returning to in terms of understanding monetary dynamics in macro-economic terms, is summed up in the question,

"Do you know what happens in a game of Monopoly if the banker runs out of money?" 

Many people don't because they've not experienced a game where that has been necessary. I played enough games when I was younger for this to happen at least once. The answer to that question is that the banker simply creates more currency -literally just writes on bits of paper and these then become legal tender within the game. If this doesn't happen, the game grinds to a halt. In order to continue the exchange of money for properties, fines, rents, building, mortgaging etc (which is all the economy of the game), there has to be sufficient supply of money to support that activity. ^*

From this point of departure, I have been noting several parallels and helpful reflections to an actual, proper, scaled-up, economy with its own money-issuing powers. It's almost as if the game is a scaled-down model of a real economy. In fact it is and was designed to be so -the only question is whether the parallels between the two scales hold -and this is the topic of this little enquiry. 

As I have come to see it, 'handbag economics' (perhaps I'll stop scare-quoting that) is problematic because, seen in terms of the game of Monopoly, handbag economics takes only the perspective of an individual player and not the banker. The game enables us to see, if we ponder further, the way that money represents or is backed by the total economy. It also helps us to begin to grasp the importance of one of the core insights of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT); that the starting point for a government in an economy is not "tax" but "spend". 

Usually handbag economists start with the idea that you have to have money coming in before you can spend it. This is then transposed directly to the macro economy and is taken to mean you have to tax to get the money coming in so that it can be spent. This is the perspective of the ordinary player in the game: in order to function as a player you have to have money otherwise you can't buy or develop properties, nor can you pay fines or rents and your only recourse if you run out of money is to sell or mortgage properties or to hope one of your rivals will drop onto one of your properties and give you rent or that you will pass 'go' and get your 200 currency units (cu's -different national editions use different denominations: £ $ etc) income. 

However, just stating it in those terms does help us to understand a few things. One is that there is another perspective in the game; that of the banker. Another, and relatedly, is about where that 200 cu's comes from and what function it has in the economy-that-is-the-game. And the question of the 200 cu's for passing go (how are they earned and how does that work?) also relates to a third matter: starting the game. 

These are all tied together by the insight that if the game's economy runs out of money, the banker -as banker, not as a mere player- can simply produce more currency 'from thin air' in game terms: the banker has a magic money tree and doesn't run out of "other people's money". In fact the danger in the game is that other people run out of the banker's money (translation: the economy runs out of the government's money). 

To be sure, the banker doesn't normally just give the new money away. There are a few mechanisms which they can use to float new money into the game's economy. One is via the basic income given by passing go which can now be paid in newly-created (minted!) money, similarly those points where the banker is mandated by cards to pay players. The new currency tokens will then continue to be used and they will function in just the same way as the printed cu papers that were issued at the start of the game. Basically it is trust or confidence that makes this happen. As long as the players continue to treat the new tokens as currency, it actually is currency. That is, if players trust to accept it from one another as payment of the debts that the game's rules recognise and create, then it is functioning in the exact same way as the game's pre-printed currency notes. Probably, ultimately what holds that trust in place may be that the banker will accept those tokens in payment of fines, property deals etc and continue to re-circulate the new `notes` in payment of the banker's own obligations to pay the basic 'passing go' income to players along with any occasional card-mandated 'bonus payments'. 

I underline that the new notes are functionally interchangeable with the 'old' pre-printed currency unit notes that come in the game box. Now we understand better the banker's point of view. The banker is there to ensure that the currency functions to support the game's economy; to make sure that there is enough money for everyone to exchange in payment for the goods and services that the game consists of or for players to use to pay debts to other players or to the banker themself. The banker is spending that currency into existence. First of all in starting the game by creditting each player with a sum of money and then by topping up each player's account each time they pass go. That first amount is not earned in any way by any of the players: it exists to enable the game's economy to get started. This is essentially like the Modern Monetary Theory proposition that the proper order for understanding a macro economy is not tax-then-spend (the handbag economics' story) but rather spend-then-tax. I'm just focusing on the spend aspect for now, not the tax dimension. 

What MMT is saying is that for a money-using economy to start and keep going, money (currency units) must be made available to 'players' /economic actors to be able to represent\stand for goods and services that they can exchange. Once players\economic actors have currency units and have confidence and trust that others will accept them in exchange for goods or services, then they can engage in exchanges using the cu's -this is "economic activity". The necessary trust\confidence can be underpinned, enabled and strengthened by a sovereign token issuer being themselves prepared to accept the currency units \tokens in payment of (for example) taxes(*3). 

What if the banker couldn't introduce currency into the game regularly?

This section is a bit of a side-exploration. Feel free to move to the next section if the detail does your head in (headed "Micro model ...").

We could, perhaps, consider the reverse side of the banker's spending currency into play within the game. What would happen if money was not being brought into the game's economy -that is if it wasn't being spent into existence inside the game? Two scenarios here: one would be a game where no-one has any money at the start, the other scenario would be where no-one receives 200 cu's for passing go. If there was no opening credit for each player at the start of the game, then a game might look like the following situation. Since the rule is that no-one may buy properties on the first time around the board, then during that first round a player may find they have to pay a fine or receive moneys from other players or to give money to other players as a result of card mandates related to where players pieces land following a dice-throw. Clearly these things could not happen, and so having not cu's would mean that the first round only had the effect of determining the relative order and timing of players entering into the second round. No slight disparities in wealth would yet crop up. If the only income were from passing go, then some players would be able to begin buying properties. This would advantage those who had the highest dice throws to get round first. They would then be able to modestly buy properties and gain, perhaps, a modest income by taking rents from players whose aggregate dice throws meant they went past go last. It would probably take quite a lot of time for these initial gains and losses to add up. 

And we still haven't addressed the issue of the fines that may have accumulated in the first round -admittedly unlikely to be many but still possible. So, imagine a player ends up with a card mandating that they pay 50 cu's to the banker. Without any starting moneys, the would have to issue an IOU, assuming the banker accepts it: perhaps the deal would be that they'd only get 150cu's from the bank on passing go. Or, what if the mandate was to pay other players, say 10cu's each. Again an IOU could be offered and if accepted could potentially begin to work as a currency token if other players would accept it, which they would if they trusted that the debt would be paid with the basic 'passing go' income. The IOU note could then circulate as a currency unit. Let's notice here that the confidence in such IOUs relies on the prospect of a basic passing go income (hereinafter: "bpgi") introducing an accepted currency into the game's economy. This clarifies the function of money as a unit of account between players making it easier to settle debts more quickly and efficiently. 

If there were no basic 'passing go' income, there are two scenarios. One is that there was a start-of-game deposit of currency units to each player and that is 'it' -no more money comes into the game's economy, there is no further currency to be had. The other scenario could be that there is no starting money either. This latter scenario would be like the previous scenario but without expectation of any currency units becoming available. So the only way to proceed would be to issue IOUs against fines and hope that these became currency -but what would they be 'backed' by? How would they become a means to buy properties and so forth? Unless the players had the nous to agree together to independently create a banker with the kinds of powers the conventional rules set out, the game would seem doomed never really to begin. Or perhaps players would be allowed to claim the cards of any property they landed on and perhaps those could become the basis -the backing- for a currency of sorts provided all the players trusted one another to honour the debts created. 

There would be an interesting question here of how the relative valuations of the properties might then develop since the conventional rules set a price which rests in the authority of the banker to refuse to hand over deeds for less than that price. If the first of those two scenarios (where there is no bpgi of 200cu's) is followed and there is a starting set of moneys each player has but no other money in the game's economy then the play-out might look like this. Various exchanges would go on to pay fines etc. The banker would not be able to pay out for occasional card-mandated bonuses unless either they received moneys as banker from other players -fines etc or if this was a permitted way to introduce new cu's into the game. However, that would result in a patchy game where payments were a bit hit-and-miss and as a game, it'd be really slow to get going and would likely grind to a halt when money wasn't available to enable payments and receipts. (A situation historically like the depression situation that Keynes sought to remedy with his General Theory). 

Micro model to macro: parallels between game and national economy

This all helps us to appreciate that a currency is 'backed' by the economy as a whole. In other words, the cu's represent and correspond to the economy -the goods and services (potentially) available for exchange. It also helps us to appreciate the importance of the MMT insight that the actual order of things in an economy is "(government) spend and then tax". The two are interlinked. What the currency does is unlock the potential availability of the goods and services. The offer of a payment calls forth a corresponding offer of a widget or a service. No money, no economy. Without the currency being available, much of the potential exchange of goods and services does not take place: the game's economy and the actual economy are in recession: not much happens and many people are not provisioned. Not being provisioned is like the players having to go round the board without being able to buy -or sell, come to that: the property cards remain only potential but not active parts of the game; the houses and hotels sit in the box and are never brought out into use. 

To unlock the latent potential of properties, houses and hotels and bring them into the game, there must first be money. And sometimes, during the game, there must be more money added if the economy of the game gets locked up because, say, player C passed Go, but there are no more currency notes. The banker isn't in debt in any meaningful way, the rules of the economy simply require there to be more money than was originally printed and packed with the game. The banker's IOU is in effect currency -it can be recirculated because it can be relied on for exchange and ultimately the banker will accept it back in payment for property, a house, a hotel, a fine or to get out of jail. The game's economy is good for the extra currency units else the banker wouldn't have needed to 'print more money'.

This is in essence how it is in the big economy beyond the game. The country has loads of potential 'stuff' and activities to produce and distribute. To unlock that potential the banker (the government, essentially) can put currency into circulation. To be sure, it has more options for doing that than a trading game offers, though it could do the equivalent of giving people 200cu's for passing Go. This was proposed (helicopter money -it's what the USA did with covid payments) as a better idea than giving it to bankers who, in the event, just ferreted it away. With it just sitting in offshore accounts, it didn't function to unlock latent potential in the wider economy. In some cases they ferreted it away in property, and all that did was cause inflation in the property market. This is bad because it made it even more difficult for ordinary people by driving up their costs of living where those costs are related to property prices and rents. It would have been better  for the economy as a whole and ordinary people in particular if QE had been based on basic passing Go income.

In the game the players start with a load of money. They've not earned this. The purpose of this money is to prefigure the game's economy; in effect it says to the players, "This is your initial potential in the game, spend it to bring the game to life". It represents the capacity for the players to interact economically and to expand the scope of the game's initial conditions. The currency calls the game into being when it is used. It enables purchases and exchange. It brings properties into the game and enables development. Likewise the bpgi keeps topping up the game's economy often enabling some players to stay in the game. In the big economy, the government has to spend currency into the 'game' that is the economy in order to release the productivity latent in the resources, processes, labour and ideas of the country. If the currency is curtailed or allowed to be stashed away unproductively (this was Keynes' concern back in the day) the resources cease to be used because offers of money for stuff or activities dries up. We can see, in terms of the trading game, that if the banker does austerity, then the game seizes up. But the banker doesn't need to do austerity, the banker isn't in debt to anyone; the banker is merely making something available to enable the continued unlocking of the game's resources and the continuance of payments and exchange suitable to maintain and develop the game's present capacity.

Other lessons to learn from the trading game analogue

So we can see the idea of government "debt" is misleading at best and poisonous at worst. What is too often labelled 'debt' is actually a monetary shadow or a kind of virtual analogue of economic capacity. If it isn't ... let's say "invested"... then productive capacity cannot be brought into the economy. Government 'debt' is actually decisions about where to first insert that money into the economy to call forth productive capacity. It's not really debt in our ordinary way of understanding(*5), it's better thought of as investment or commissioning. When the banker gives a player 200 cu's bpgi, they are inserting that money into the economy of the game in a way that first assists the individual player but with the knock-on effect of supporting further transactions originating with that player. That 200cu's becomes a rent income for another player and perhaps a chunk fairly promptly goes back to the banker as a property purchase and a house built. This makes it easier to understand that this is not, as Thatcher would frame it, "other people's money" but that money is actually a collectively owned artefact which is meant to serve the common good. But everywhere it is in chains in privatised holdings and public-to-private capture-and-convert schemes -trickle up economics.

What about inflation? This is quite often asked. Mostly this is because either people have vague recollections of learning about the hyper inflation of the early 1920s in the Weimar Republic, or because they have picked up a monetarist argument which applies the basic idea of supply and demand to currency in use. Sometimes both. Well, the evidence seems to be very weak and the causes for the Weimar republic's hyper inflation was not really about money supply -but much more understandable in the terms of the analogy to the game I'm writing about here -a mismatch between currency and what it is 'backed' by in the form of productive capacity. The point is that if money represents and corresponds to productive capacity in an economy (or a trading game), then if you reduce that capacity (a war will do that) but don't take account of that in money issuing, then the mismatch will tend to show up as inflation -particularly if you have a punitive reparations regime in place to remove even more 'stuff' from that economy.

That the game grinds to a halt if the banker doesn't issue new currency also invites us to question why there is a huge amount of money somewhere 'in the game' but still more is needed. And this has a not-insignificant real-world analogue. The new currency is needed because all of the came-with-the-game notes are sat in players' possession. They are, if you like, savings. It would be fun perhaps to play around with the possibility that the banker might actually give them savings accounts and then mimic fractional reserve banking(*4) in the game -though that only delays the potential problem; if a player or two wanted all their cash back, there could be a 'run on the bank' and the banker would be back to having to produce new currency units. But I digress. The point being made is that savings which are merely sitting there, are not calling things into existence, they are unproductive. In the property trading game, these hoards don't recirculate cu's. If there's no mechanism to return those hoards into circulation in a timely fashion, then you have to 'print' more money to replace it. 

Don't forget the obvious lesson to learn -which the game was originally set up to teach: the tendency to monopoly (hence the name). The game very clearly shows how small, often chance-based, differences in wealth tend, over time, to accumulate at the expense of weaker \unluckier players. It's one of the reasons I don't like to play the game -the slow decline of the losing players into penury is not entertaining and the small chance of a reversal is not enough to offset that watching paint dry feeling. Just like in real life (except in real life people are being ground down into actual misery). The original Landlord's Game had a second version of rules for once players had understood the dynamics of unearned income via rents towards monopoly power. The second set of rules levied a land value tax and playing through those rules showed how progressive taxation could re-equalise the power of individuals and not only reward good luck and happenstance. 

Let's also not forget that the analogy helps us to understand that money is, in a sense, a public utility and one that we all create collectively. It relies on our trust and continued valuing of it. As we trust it enough to spend and be paid we maintain its value (try spending foreign currency at your local supermarket if you don't believe me! -it fails because 'we' don't trust it to be good for payments). We should, I think, be wary of allowing money to be privatised ie its value to be siphoned off unproductively or for private interests to cream off value from our collective creation. For them to do that, they should have a good public-interest case and we should have democratic accountability about the way that money is put into circulation and taken out. It's our collective money: individuals get to have it because 'we' agree it's in the rules of the game.

We might want to think about the possibility that the bpgi is like a UBI...

Things that don't carry across

Because the game narrowly focuses on property and rents, matters relating to production, everyday provisioning are not really in view. It's worth noting that property prices and rents are fixed and this usually is not the case 'out there'. The banker doesn't levy taxes -unlike a government (though I suggest playing modified games to explore that could be interesting -rename the banker as "chancellor" and the bank as "exchequer").

Modify the game to explore further

You could try these out singly or in combinations. Now that Hasbro have released a cheaters' edition of the game, we could emulate the selective modification of rules idea for our own progressive and educational purposes.
  • Try out the counter-examples in the 'what if...' section above.
  • Give the banker (>"chancellor") tax levying powers. You have different options. When the player passes go, maybe, a percentage of the value of their property cards? An income tax -have a starting point in terms of the money the player has in hand: say, 20% on income if they hold in cash anything above their starting account.
  • Give the 'chancellor' powers to invest money in particular projects or to give poverty relief. You'd need to decide (democratically?) what parameters to use.
  • Allow the 'chancellor' to acquire the utilities and redistribute the proceeds as dividends to all the players.
  • Go completely 'free market': don't have prices for the properties but auctions, let property card holders determine their own rents... Make sure you have a plan to break up the fights.
Footnotes 

*To be fair, maybe not 'everything' -I just couldn't resist the pull of the popular phrase. 

*2 For a bit more info: http://landlordsgame.info/ and https://roamresearch.com/#:~:text=https%3A//evonomics.com/monopoly-was-invented-to-reveal-the-toxic-greed-of-capitalism/ . I found this book to be helpful and eye-raising: https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/monopolists-9781620405710/ See also this article which also explores cheating in the game and real life.

 *3 it is likely that this is how money actually started -see Graeber or Mellor -or many other historians of political economy. This is not particularly controversial, just too little known. By 'sovereign token-issuer' I mean someone or some authority with sufficient clout to be able to command the respect to act in this way and issue monetary tokens. Usually this as a government apparatus.

*4 Quite a lot of sites and text books write as if fractional reserve banking is still practised. It mostly isn't -actual banking practice left this behind ages ago.

*5 Our ordinary understanding of 'debt' is based on the implicit equation to household accounting  and not national accounting. To go for that analogy by using that word, is to smuggle in a wrong understanding about national accounting which is misleading. It's a malignant, perhaps malevolent, rhetorical move. We can grasp the inappropriateness of the analogy by asking "who's the debt owed to?" -Well, the government borrowed from the Bank of England, which is ... drum roll... an arm of government. What's it backed by? -The nation's total capacity to do and to make stuff and our collective trust that the tokens we circulate (coins, notes and bytes) are 'good for it' (ie settling bills, debts and paying tax). The so-called 'debt' is actually the government providing and investing in maintaining the flow of goods and services that constitute the economy. The government 'owes' us the money, collectively, to do what we do in the economy. If the government is properly democratic, then we owe ourselves. If it's not then it is stealing from us or facilitating theft from the common wealth.

^* Update: I finally (10/1/2022) got down to reading Stephanie Skelton's The Deficit Myth, I discover in chapter 1 that she refers also to the Monopoly game principle that the banker never goes broke and the consequent rule that they simply issue promissory notes.

Furth update: Interesting research here. - A little insight into how privilege works.

03 July 2018

PPI commission and labour rights; a speculation on a precedent

This is a very interesting potential precedent, perhaps.
 Under the Plevin rule, if more than 50% of a consumer’s PPI’s payments went as commission and this was not explained to them at the time, they could claim back payments above that threshold, plus interest
What I'm seeing there is the idea that if someone enters a contract but it is one in which they are exploited in such a way that the other party makes excessive profit, then they are entitled to money back. Now play that through the idea that workers in various industries have had wages depressed while business owners, shareholders etc have taken excessive commission ...

UK banks could face new multibillion-pound claims after PPI ruling | Money | The Guardian:

04 June 2017

Surge pricing goes universal: some effects

Here's something I learnt today in an article which definitely deserves pondering by those concerned with culture, social justice and keeping an eye on corporate tactics.
In 1861 a shopkeeper in Philadelphia revolutionised the retail industry. John Wanamaker, who opened his department store in a Quaker district of the city, introduced price tags for his goods, along with the high-minded slogan: “If everyone was equal before God, then everyone would be equal before price.” The practice caught on. Up until then high-street retailers had generally operated a market-stall system of haggling on most products. Their best prices might be reserved for their best customers. Or they would weigh up each shopper and make a guess at what they could afford to pay and eventually come to an agreement.
Now, I never knew that history, though I suppose any of us would have guessed that perhaps there had to be a first place to move from haggling (and the personalised pricing that must have meant) to fixed ticket pricing. I am intrigued and delighted by the insight into how a simple change alters a whole culture for a couple of centuries across the globe. I note how it plays well with massification and the then-developing ideology of free trade.

Downsides not mentioned: this would blow a hole in rpi calculations and render difficult or impossible inflation calculations and thus problematise things like index-linked pensions or other payments relying on rpi systems (note the comment in the article "Increasingly, there is no such thing as a fixed price from which sale items deviate"). There's an interesting feed-back loop potential in that. And then there is the hint in the article that poorer people might not come out well, that they would be given higher quotes on the basis that they are less likely to buy lots.
It might also become difficult to argue for the price-lowering effects of the Market (capitalisation intended) if in fact such selective pricing is taking place. Interestingly this exposes, possibly, the reliance that market economics may have on fixed pricing as its ideological support. Now I understand that 'surge pricing' or whatever does rely on free-market justification but I suggest that offering a price based purely on demand at a particular point is not the same as offering personalised prices based on what the algorithm suggests that you are willing or able to pay. If the algorithms are using the same or similar digital shadows for you or me, they will all tend to offer similar 'deals' to us. Thus the possibility of shopping around with the consumer power that commands is nullified: this could become a sort of cartel/oligarchy arrangement powered by algorithms. This would create its own algorithmic feedback loop having the effect of ratchetting up prices over time. And I say that in contradiction to the article's assessment towards the end:
This looks a lot like the beginning of the end of John Wanamaker’s mission to establish “new, fair and most agreeable relations between the buyer and the seller” and to establish something closer to a comparison site that works both ways – we will be looking for the low-selling retailer, while the retailer will equally be scanning for the high-value customer.
I'm not sure that the algorithm's will be sufficiently differentiated. If you want a sense of how this might work, spend half an hour looking at the prices of rarer second-hand books on a variety of sites, asking yourself the question about who would buy at that price -yet probably the prices have been set by an algorithm: the idea that second hand means cheaper in most cases has been blown. Unless of course someone creates price-busting algorithms that have the consumer's better price interests at heart. Algorithm price-wars, anyone?

My own response is surprisingly visceral at a personal level. I feel that somehow this seems like a violation of natural justice -I resonate with Wanamaker's slogan about equal before God and price. And yet I find myself questioning how far that gut feeling is actually an artefact of a lifetime's exposure to fixed pricing and the way that it has become part of the way that I calculate swathes of everyday life.
Perhaps this kind of response is why "Horgan suggests that British retailers are still a bit terrified that customers will be put off by changing prices ".

I'm also thinking that it is likely to bring to the fore questions of profit; charging what the market /consumer will bear may increase an awareness of how questions of relative power are framed. Is the retailer really adding "that much" value to the product? Is the price of status projection really that high? Most of us don't quibble about the idea of a reasonable mark up for costs and a living wage, but some 'surge pricing' seems to be sheer profiteering and this would be a mechanism for that. 

So, I'm wondering whether we need to have a set of standards for algorithms which give a quality assurance which guarantees the protection of consumer interests?

04 April 2015

Monopoly games teach about The Deficit

The board game monopoly was originally designed to educate people about the dynamics of rentier capitalism with a view to advocating measures like a land value tax to control the worst excesses. The designer, Elizabeth Magie:
... hoped the famous game company would turn her “beautiful brainchild” into a popular way of disparaging greedy monopolists. The company had other ideas. Elizabeth Magie and the true origins of the board... - Austin Kleon
I have a dislike of Monopoly as I've blogged before. But recently it's occured to me that it could be a way to help people to think about the deficit and government spending which is more accurate and therefore helpful than the current austerity discourse which picks up Maggie Thatcher's misanalogy* to a household budget.
In the household spending misanalogy, the Micawber lesson ("Income 19 shillings, spending 20 shillings. Result, misery") seems obvious when applied to the 'tax and spend' idea of government deployment of money. There is an aspect of the game that is far more helpful in giving us a productive analogy for a body like a national government which is in charge of issuing money (and leaving aside, for the moment, the matter of the role of private banks in money supply). In many games in the latter phases, a cash crisis can often develop: the banker runs out of notes to enable transactions to take place. The rules allow the banker, at that point, to create their own notes. Informally, some players in some games come up with other solutions: iou's or ledgers are the most obvious and probably frequent.

It's the role of the game's banker in that situation of cash-undersupply that I want to focus on. Basically, in such a situation, we have money being created and injected into the game. The game-banker has not gained that money through tax. It is simply that the economy of the game at that point needs more cash for the economy, that is the game, to continue. We can see clearly here that the role of the game's banker is simply to make sure that there is enough money for the transactions that make up the game's economy to continue. That money does not need to be earned or pulled out of the game by tax. No, rather the point of the money is that it represents the economic activity going on round the board and facilitates exchange and further development of the game.

So now the analogy to government spending can begin to be made. Firstly by noting that the government is more like the Monopoly-game's banker than Dickens' Mr Micawber: the government issues money for the whole economy to use for settling payments and debts (or at least it can do, caveat as above). To picture the government as one of the players in the game who can only pick up £200 when they pass go and has only that and rents to play with is a fundamental mistake**. As the issuer of money, the banker's /government's role is simply and basically to make sure that there is sufficient money in the economy /system /game to keep exchanges flowing and the game going.
That's the main thing to get hold of. When you have taken that in and can basically see how the banker is not like an ordinary player and how a household budget is not like providing a medium of exchange, we can complicate a bit.

Making the analogy more model-like

If we take it that an analogy is a simple comparison and a model is like a bunch of analogies all tied together in a single theme or comparative object, then we can move the analogy we've just noted towards being a simple model by noting some other analogues. A model is a kind of allegory for the purpose of making sense of something.

So what other analogies does Monopoly offer to understand The Deficit***? Well, let's think about some situations that could arise in the game and match them up with an actual economy.

There are times in the game when, as mentioned already, the game's banker needs to issue more money to facilitate the continued exchanges (that is to keep the economy going). If the game's banker were to refuse to do so and insist that only money already present in the game could be used then there would be two or three (related) things that could happen.

One thing would be that there would be stagnation. Having no money to settle debts or to spend on land, houses or hotels, players would have to stop buying and selling in part or totally.

Another thing might be that there could be inflation of the value of money. This would, in the case of the game have to be by explicit mutual consent of the players (corresponding to the evolving mutually defined valuation that takes place through markets and experience of buying and selling that takes place in the real economy). The point is that the players could agree to revaluing the currency: say, £1 now means £10 and so on^. This is something that can and arguably does take place in the real economy in some circumstances^^.

And still another thing might be that a further development of the banking system could take place to get round the lack of liquidity, the gamers could issue each other IOUs but this would be increasingly inconvenient as the economy of the game continued to grow. IOUs could be improved by keeping ledgers and clearing funds every so often. This would be inventing a mini peer-to-peer banking system. Another trick would be for the game's banker to take in the 'savings' of the players and to write IOUs for the money that players have stashed away. This would, in effect, be a commercial banking system^^^.

That latter tactic would be a little model of the basics of the banking system where deposits formed the basis for loans. But we shan't go into that here because we need to get back to the main topic.

The point that I'm now moving us towards in this post is that a government with powers of sovereign money issuance is not restricted to the Austerity method of Micawber-Thatcher bookkeeping. The fact that at a national economy level the issue of money is 'backed' by the whole economy makes a difference. It means that restricting the supply of money (and this has several dimensions to it) throttles back the ability for exchange to take place. The converse is also the case: increasing the supply of money (and again, this can take place through various mechanisms) can, in appropriate circumstances and handled rightly, call forth more exchange and in turn this can encourage further production of goods and services.

To illustrate that latter point, in the game of Monopoly, increasing the supply of money would enable players to buy more land, houses and hotels more quickly (to a limit). A lack of money slows and stops the game unless more money is created and somehow fed back into the game's economic system. The game's banker does not need first to 'earn' that money, say through tax or fines from the players, they just need to supply money to support the current and immediately potential exchange activity. In these circumstances, to do the Austerity thing, ie restrict the money supply, would slow and crash the game.

This indicates that in a crash / crunch situation, what is needed is to make sure that money is put into the economy to call forth or maintain exchange potential. This is basically what John Maynard Keynes saw in the early 20th century and which has covertly been recognised with the use of Quantative Easing (however badly directed that has been).

Of course, more needs to be said about the ways that money supply can be increased or decreased (the devil and the solutions are in the detail) and the effects for good or ill that this can have. But the take-home point is that Austerity is a crock: it's founded on a faulty analogy and one that in the doing of it makes the poor poorer and the rich richer.
 -----------------------------------------
* I well recall in the late 1970's, when the election campaign was raging that saw Mrs Thatcher become Britain's Prime Minister, realising that my A level Economics showed me how misleading it was to pretend that government spending was like a household budget. Once you've started to look at money supply issues, Keynsianism and the like, it doesn't seem such a straightforward or helpful analogy at all. For those educated outside Britain, A levels ('Advanced levels') were and are exams whose grades are used by universities to determine who to offer places to. It's worth noting that A level Economics is not widely taught and so most university Economics courses end up having to use the first year (perhaps more) to cover what an A level takes in.
** The mistake is one, without doubt, that neoliberal bankers and their political and industrial mates are happy for us to continue to make (and many of them probably believe it themselves. To be sure, it suits the ideology of shrinking state and putting finance in control, in effect.
*** The Deficit, in capitals like that, is my way of referring to the totem of what I'm calling 'Austerity Discourse'. Austerity discourse is a political fable used to justify reducing government spending and 'shrinking government'. The central totem is the analogy (or framing) of the household budget: income and outgoings. This construct enables austerity-promoters to disable the exercise of sovereign money by government which keeps the economic discourse within parameters that favour their projects. The Deficit is then a phrase that can be deployed to rein in any proposals that would use the powers of sovereign money in ways that don't fit the austerity narrative.
^ And this, of course, reminds us in passing that the value of money vis-a-vis goods and services in the real world is something that we construct socially. Money is a cultural artefact not a force of nature.
^^This is not to concede to monetarist theory, simply to recognise that in certain circumstances there is a reality, particularly in a circumstance like the game where a dynamic factor like velocity of circulation can't make up for shartfalls in quantity.
^^^ This is essentially a historical sort of model of the origins of commercial banking. There have been developments since: from lending out deposits, to fractional reserve banking through to money-creation-lending that we see today and which Positive Money (and others) critiques as, in effect, the privatising for profit of what should be a public good -a money supply that ensures a well functioning economy for the many not just the few.

PS (Posted 3Dec2016) I thought it affirming to find someone else using monopoly as a way to help us to understand some macroeconomics. So ...
In the game Monopoly, $200 is the amount every player gets for passing Go. Such cash infusions aren’t bad for the game; instead they help all players play the game. The same would happen in our real economy if everyone gets infusions of $200 a month. The extra money would relieve some burdens of working families and heighten their chances for success and satisfac­tion. And it would stimulate our economy without higher debt.

07 February 2015

Where's my leisure society, dude?

In the year 1930, John Maynard Keynes predicted that technology would have advanced sufficiently by century’s end that countries like Great Britain or the United States would achieve a 15-hour work week. There’s every reason to believe he was right. In technological terms, we are quite capable of this. And yet it didn’t happen.

In the late 1960s my primary school teachers were telling us that they were helping to educate us for leisure as well as for work because when we were adults our country would be able to produce enough wealth for us not to have to work such long hours.

Well, they were right and they were wrong: actually our country arguably does produce enough wealth for us all to live well enough without having to work 60 hour weeks or even less. Perhaps even only 15 hours. Perhaps someone's done the sums (let me know if you have come across them). Certainly in terms of productivity and capability in comparison with the 1960s it's hard to believe we couldn't possibly. In this respect, I reckon, my teachers and Keynes were right.

Obviously, they were wrong because ... austerity! By that I mean that we are in a situation where the idea of only needing to work for a fraction of the time many currently work seems ridiculous. Especially as there are many who feel that they would need to work more to be free from miserable conditions of life.

Part of the clue to why this might be so is in the policies Keynes proposed and which were being enacted between the start of the 1950s and the mid 1970s (and which produced what the Cambridge economist Ha Joon Chang calls the 'golden age' in relation to the political economy of the West). These were key in bringing about a period of time in which my teachers and those they were influenced by could seriously envisage the leisure society. After all it was a period when the gap between the wealth of the richest and that of the poorest was diminished allowing millions to be raised out of poverty. Productivity was growing. (Obviously this scared the would-be plutocrats who plotted to put this stuff into reverse).

So, I guess in short, the main answer to my query about what happened to my eagerly-anticipated leisure society is that it was smuggled away when the foundations for it were substituted by extractive rentier capitalism given a fig leaf of respectability of the superficially plausible Chicago school economics  and the idea of trickle down prosperity (Chang does a good job of showing how this rather one-dimensional approach to economics really isn't adequate).

What we need to remember is that economic activity is socialised at root. The reason why an arch capitalist like Henry Ford would pay his workers more than subsistence wages was a self-interested-but-enlightened recognition that for him to sell stuff, people had to be able to buy it. The name of the capitalist game is to find systems and ideological justifications to extract and suck up to the 1% as much as possible of the wealth that pretty much the whole of society is involved in producing and circulating. What Keynsian policies did was to offset some of the more egregious ways that this wealth-mining takes place and to re-settle the wealth back with those who actually produced much of the value in the first place.

One of the things that has bearing on this is the idea of a Citizen's Income or Basic Income Guarantee. It's been a policy of the Green Party in Britain since the 1970's and seen as likely in the book The History of the Future in 100 Objects (an intriguing read, btw). It would be one way to try to keep wealth from floating off into the stratosphere of offshore banking and ridiculously OTT property bubbles (which, remember, drive up prices for all of us and provide a further extractive mechanism for the already hyper rich).

Redistributive economic mechanism are a vital way to keep the economy balanced and serving the many. The BIG experiment seems to indicate that people will still work and it won't demotivate work being done. It would enable some people to do what turns out to be socially useful stuff 'for free' so to speak.

If, as many Christians would argue, it is true that humans are created to enjoy adding value to creation and to enjoy exercising creativity, learning and helping others (notwithstanding whatever distortions fallenness represents in those things), then we should expect that given opportunity people will indeed make efforts to do things which turn out to work towards the good of many others. The genuinely lazy and parasitical turn out to be relatively rare especially in circumstances where there is a genuine sense of belonging, inclusion and pride in playing ones part.

What we need, as Christians, to recall is that fallenness generally acts upon the already or in-principle good to distort, pervert or weaponise it. Our task in a fallen world is to work to preserve, enhance or even make more goodness and to undistort, revert and ploughshar-ise what has been caught up in fallen usage. We can expect some success in all of this because the Spirit of God still hovers over creation to empower ordering and teeming and redeeming.

The attractiveness of beauty, truth, goodness and love will always draw people (who are created to be drawn) to work with God whether or not they can name or recognise their activity as such.

I would expect 'my' leisure society to be filled with huge amounts of productive 'work' being done, in a sense, for free. Why? Because it would be enjoyable, fulfilling and create social bonds, respect and recognition.

Check out:
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/the-mincome-experiment-dauphin?utm_source=digg&utm_medium=email
On the Phenomenon of Bullshit Jobs - STRIKE!:

29 December 2014

Why our plutocrats aren't bothered by climate change

Of course! the reason for lack of real motivation and action on the part of our governments is that those in government are pretty much networked into the class of those who are making money by the current financial system.

Now, they might still be interested in stopping the worst and costly effects of the changes that climate change would bring about were it not for the fact that the way things are set up, there is a greater incentive to make money out of selling new stuff to those affected. You see, if you own the means of production, then producing more is more profitable. New homes, new crops, new clothing choices, and all changing rapidly as we work through the succession of effects. All of that means opportunities for selling stuff especially for those with the capital to invest in the new products. It's the same problem at base as with the way we count GDP: it shows up as 'better' for the economy measured by GDP to clean up pollution, for example, than to prevent it; cleaning it up produces measurable economic activity where as stopping it doesn't. And where do the profits from that measurable economic activity go?

In most cases these are people working with organisations, businesses, which do things like scenario planning. The scenarios will certainly include the cases of greater amounts of climate change (above two degrees C). These will then have sophisticated SWOT style planning applied to them. So I conclude that this planning has shown them that there are, from the point of view of profit, greater opportunities than threats in the scenarios which bear down on the poorer members of our global society. As a Friends of the Earth spokesperson said:
“Compensating coastal communities affected by climate change is simply a matter of social justice, ... At the moment, the government is dumping these costs on individual households and vulnerable communities.”Almost 7,000 UK properties to be sacrificed to rising seas | Environment | The Guardian:
This is just the pattern that we are already seeing: the cuts are being made at the expense of the poorer and more vulnerable and letting off the richer (and financially more resilient) from doing their fair share: we are not all in it together. Trickle down economics doesn't work but we are left with the attitude that once was justified by it: that enriching the 'entrepreneurs' is a Good Thing. Of course most of the entrepreneurs turn out to be rentiers not particularly adding any value to the economy as a whole and removing money from the economy by salting it away offshore.

The point we need to grasp is that if you are wealthy enough, you will feel that you can spend enough money to make sure you are shielded from the worst effects: it's easy to move home, easy to buy the stuff you need to deal with the effects, even relatively easy to employ private armies security to keep you safe from the civil strife. They can survive in a new medieval economy by becoming barons.

01 December 2014

Money creation: a reply to my MP

A month or so back I wrote to my MP on the back of the discovery that 75% of our MPs didn't actually understand the role of banks in creating money and the lack of control the government has over the money supply. My MP seems to have passed the test somewhat, though her reply gave me some pause for further questioning. Here's what I wrote to her having considered things a bit.

Thank for your response of 5 November to my email about money supply and banking.

It was heartening to see that you had clearly given consideration to the issue and could articulate a position which reaches beyond some of the popular (mis)understandings. I hope you'll be okay to consider and perhaps comment further on a handful of further points that, it seems to me, arise from what you wrote back to me.

I was intrigued by your use of the phrase 'banks are technically able to create money'. I wasn't sure just what the hedging adverb was meant to convey. To be clear: 97% + of the British money supply is created by bank loans. These loans while not notes or coins can be converted to notes and coins (though only a tiny fraction ever are, hence the figure just quoted), and the money so generated is spent (mainly electronically) into the British economy. If by 'technically' you mean to make a distinction to 'traditional' money consisting of notes and coins then, fair enough. However, if you mean something else, some further explanation might be needed.

Clearly, and perhaps this was what you were alluding to in mentioning market forces, the making of loans is a supply-to-demand issue. So in that sense I would agree that there is a demand-limited element to the creation of bank-money. However, there is more to be said about this.

One thing is that the elasticity of the demand is not simply related to actual economic activity but to perceptions of future activity. And of course the sub-prime lending issue indicates that latent demand is huge but some of it needs to be resisted. It is this latter issue that has prompted the concern of Postive Money and a growing network of economists (who recognise that the failure of many economists to predict the recession does place a question mark against some of the discipline's modi operandi and assumptions). Currently this perception is left to banks to manage and respond to and therein lies a difficulty: their aim is not to manage the economy overall well but to make profit and so the slip into ever riskier money creation strategies becomes nigh-on inevitable. This should have been a lesson drawn from history looking back to the global financial system before the Bretton Woods accords. From that perspective it is no surprise that the crash took place. It was only a surprise from the point of view of the current orthodoxy.

In addition, commenting on your remark about management of bank-created money supply via the BoE base rate. I think that it is worth remembering that this only really factors into the thinking of banks when they have to go to the BoE for a loan to maintain liquidity and this is actually something of a marginal activity and generally very short-term. So this particular lever is not a very powerful one most of the time. So the idea that this is regarded as an efficient and effective way to run a modern financial system is both increasingly and rightly contested and also contradicted by the evidence.

Therefore the issue of monetary instability can indeed, as you say, be seen as largely due to irresponsible loans and debts. But the issue is not just to make sure they are repaid, but to limit the risk-taking behaviour and mindset that encouraged those loans in the first place. Currently, the way that the banking and finance system operates, there are real incentives not to address that until we go over the event horizon of a further crash cycle.

That means that (given that economies are complex dynamical systems) while it is true to some extant, as you say, that the lack of housing creates property price inflation, we should not lose sight of the fact that supply is always relative to demand and so demand-side factors can and do affect price. So while I agree with your implicit recommendation to increase supply of housing, I fear that it could be rendered relatively ineffective unless we address the issue that property is seen as an investment attractive to the increasingly rich financial sector. This increases demand and contributes, I would argue, significantly to housing inflation (personally I think that a land value tax, such as used to be Labour Party policy, ought to be considered to help address this and other issues related to rentier behaviour, but that's another conversation).

So, I think I agree with you about regulation of the banks and the restriction of lending. However, I am not sure that you are proposing to  significantly-enough pull back the ability of banks to, bluntly, create money. One thing that gives me pause for concern about your reply is the phrase “how much that money is leveraged”. To me 'leverage' means using a financial asset to create a further financial product or package. I wondered whether this was an allusion to fractional reserve lending? If so, I would have to say that it would be misplaced as, in effect, it is not the way that loan creation works any longer. I know that our economics textbooks often give it as an example, but it's out of date. There is no fractional reserve system. If you are talking about the run-away growth in derivatives, I tend to agree that action is needed there too.

Putting that aside to one side, I think that the real issue is of accountability (if you'll pardon the pun). Money supply should be seen as a public good and managed for the benefit of society as a whole and either not in the gift of private, for-profit, enterprises to arrange according to their own business plans and estimations of risk which are clearly blindsided at regular intervals and only tangentially and sporadically serve the common good. So, I think that we need to substantially return money creation to a democratically accountable system analogous to the legal tender approach to notes and coins but extended into the electronic realm.

Now it may be that what you have in mind in terms of regulation and controls might amount to that.  I'd be interested to hear your comments. In the run up to the election, I intend to ask all of the candidates for this constituency about this issue.

So that is what I wrote. On reflection, I didn't express well the issue about supply and demand in relation to bank loans. it would have been simpler to say, simply, that the banks' tendency toward profit pushes towards more finance tied up in riskier loans because demand is potentially infinite and only limited by price, in effect.

A further consideration I had thought about including but didn't in the end was to point out the disadvantage of money created by loans to be repaid at interest. Margrit Kennedy (free book outlining some of the issues here). In here book Occupy Money, she points out that by creating money as debt, we introduce automatically interest into the pricing of virtually the whole economic system. In effect, the banks are taxing us through practically every financial transaction. Her estimates are that in some cases this is compounded into quite significant price inflation. (Remember this next time banks propose to charge you to hold a current account). So restricting banks' ability to create money through loans could mean that we collectively subsidise the financial system's fat cats rather less.

31 October 2014

71% of MPs don't know how money is created

You'll pick up the details from this email I just sent to my MP. You might want to do the same (feel free to use this email a starting point).

I have been aware for a little while now of the findings of a poll by Dods Monitoring showing, shockingly, that only a minority of MPs could correctly explain who creates money in the UK and how.

I am concerned that nearly three quarters of MPs believe that only the government is allowed to create money, when in fact that only applied to notes and coins and, given that the huge preponderance of money is now electronic, it is banks that create the majority of money in the UK since the government in fact plays no real role in that part of the money supply (the rot set in with the retiring of the Bretton Woods agreement in the 1970's). This has fairly direct implications for the house price bubble and the risk of another debt-fuelled crisis.

Just in case you weren't aware: the government creates coins and notes, but these make up just 3% of money in the economy. The other 97% of money exists as bank depositswhich are electronic numbers in bank accounts. The aforementioned poll showed that just over 71% of MPs believed that only the government could create this electronic money.

In actual fact, banks create money through some simple accounting, when they make loans. This means that when people repay loans,  money disappears from the economy. It is worrying to me, as someone with some economics training,  that only 12% of MPs in the poll correctly gave this answer. I had assumed that MPs would pick up these kind of basics in the course of their political careers.

Just so you can get a sense that this is not just me passing on some fringe economic viewpoint, consider the Bank of England explanation from their March 2014 Quarterly Bulletin:

"[The] majority of money in the modern economy is created by commercial banks making loans. ... When a bank makes a loan, for example to someone taking out a mortgage to buy a house, it does not typically do so by giving them thousands of pounds worth of banknotes. Instead, it credits their bank account with a bank deposit of the size of the mortgage. At that moment, new money is created. … Just as taking out a new loan creates money, the repayment of bank loans destroys money." ( http://bit.ly/1rrwbnL )

Please could you confirm that you are aware that:
1. Around 97% of money in the UK consists of electronic bank deposits in people’s bank accounts
2. That banks create these deposits when they make loans
3. That when people repay loans, the money is destroyed and disappears from the economy.

If it turns out that you are one of those who didn't know this about the money supply, can I recommend that you read Ann Pettifor's book 'Just Money' which I suspect will resonate well also with your own political concerns.

Yours etc ...


Full poll results available

25 May 2014

Fairtrade failing to deliver benefits ?

've been hearing rumours lately of serious questions about the benefits of FT: that it might not be benefitting people as much as the normal market. Well, it could well be that what I've been hearing was the harbinger of this report -picked up by the Observer here: Fairtrade accused of failing to deliver benefits to African farmworkers.

The summary in one sentence:

Sales of Fairtrade-certified products from Uganda and Ethiopia are not benefiting poor farmworkers as profits fail to trickle down to much of the workforce, says a groundbreaking study.
It does make concerning reading for those of us who have long supported the idea of Fair Trade. However, don't just read the first two thirds or so of the article which lay out the basic findings. You need to read the last part of the article to learn that there may be factors that put it in a different, less alarming, light. As the reports authors themselves suggest, for example:

"One possibility is that Fairtrade producer organisations are always
established in significantly poorer, more marginalised areas where an
accumulation of disadvantages means smallholder farmers are unable to
pay even the paltry wages offered by smallholders in other areas without
Fairtrade producer organisations,
And then a comment from the FT foundation:

When comparisons are based more on like-for-like situations, such as the
study's own analysis of Ugandan coffee in small scale coffee production
set-ups, it finds key areas where workers in areas with
Fairtrade-certified farmer organisations in fact had better conditions
compared with those in non-certified, such as free meals, overtime
payments and loans and wage advances for workers. 
All of which seems to indicate a more complex situation and more research and certainly doesn't mean we should give up FT buying just yet.

16 February 2014

Prepare kids to be billionaires?

I get updates of questions from Quora -they are often interesting questions and sometimes the answers are knockout. I found that this question What are good ways to prepare my kids to be billionaires? And it stuck with me. i must confess that some of it was because I was really disturbed by it. I bespoke unaware entitlement (though I may be wrong) and a load of assumptions that really need unpicking.



So I found myself commenting:

Bigger questions: why would you think they would become billionaires?
And what is it about being a billionaire that you covet (for them)? Why
is that the measure of whether you have helped bring a wonderful human
being into the world?



I ask these further question because there are 7bn people on the planet.
Millions of them have the qualities necessary but only a very small
amount of the total potential billionaires have actually achieved that
potential. Why? -we should perhaps recognise that it is mostly good
fortune that makes a billionaire: the good fortune to have social,
financial and political capital that can be leveraged and to be in the
right place at the right time.



Our problem is confirmation bias -we see the already successful but
discount their failures on the way and see them as if their 'success'
was inevitable. We *don't* see the thousands just as 'worthy' who happen
not to have had the happy combination of factors come together for
them. To prepare kids to be billionaires they have to be prepared not to
be: to fail: character  such as humility , empathy, no sense of
entitlement, generosity etc are never going to go wrong.



Also, why would you think that your own efforts to hothouse your
children might not backfire? Better to put more effort into making the
world one where more of the billions can be heirs to a better chance to
make more than a dollar a day. In building a world like that we make a
safer world for all our children.


 What I didn't write because I thought it was even more likely to draw trolls was that, in fact, too often billionaires become rentiers and end up in rent-seeking behaviour; in effect by occupying certain critical/strategic positions in the political-economic complex they accrue money for doing, in actuality, nothing and they accrue money by denuding others of opportunity or  even the means of proper livelihood. To prepare a child to be a billionaire -even if this were a sure thing- must, morally, surely, involve helping them to recognise that they would have huge debts to society and good fortune which should be given back (I'm not saying they don't have some kind of right to enjoy the fruits of their genuine labours). That no-one actually needs (or really deserves) that amount of money and that holding onto it is actually clinging to power to continue to exploit without work or effort -'rent seeking behaviour'.



The obverse of this is to think more about the normal fact of life for 'successful' entrepreneurs: failure is rife before, for a small percentage of them, they get a big break. Commonly this may involve 'betting the farm' on something: it's about risk. So, if we want a society where people can have a go at 'making it big' we need to make sure we have a society which looks out for the losers (some of whom may become 'winners' one day): we need 'safety nets' and the means to put people back on their feet -because not everyone can be billionaires -or the inflation would make the 'admiration' connoted in the term obsolete.



(2) What are good ways to prepare my kids to be billionaires? - Quora:

29 January 2014

Trusting the poor with the money

This article Why we should give free money to everyone, shook me because it made me realised that I too tended to accept that just giving people money to help them is an invitation to abuse.

 The trend from 'welfare' to 'workfare' is international, with obligatory job applications, reintegration trajectories, mandatory participation in 'voluntary' work. The underlying message: Free money makes people lazy.

Except that it doesn’t.
The article shows how poor people all over the world can do great things with money if they're given it -and it's better than what well-meaning and even well-researched aid workers might do. And from my experience of having little money, it makes sense: it is frustrating to see how ones lack of money shuts someone out from economies of scale, helpful social networks, time-saving, training and so on. Having enough money -that is access to power to be an agent in ones own life and in community with others. So,

Proven correlations exist between free money and a decrease in crime,
lower inequality, less malnutrition, lower infant mortality and teenage
pregnancy rates, less truancy, better school completion rates, higher
economic growth and emancipation rates. ‘The big reason poor people are
poor is because they don’t have enough money’, economist Charles Kenny, a
fellow at the Center for Global Development, dryly remarked last June.
‘It shouldn’t come as a huge surprise that giving them money is a great
way to reduce that problem.’
 There's actually a virtuous circle as readers of The Spirit Level might just suspect. Add to that the costs of giving aid and there is more 'bang for your buck'.

Why would we send well-paid foreigners in SUVs when we could just give
cash? This would also diminish risk of corrupt officials taking their
share. Free money stimulates the entire economy: consumption goes up,
resulting in more jobs and higher incomes.


Only problem is that our assumption that people will waste money is so strongly ingrained that it's a hard sell. And it's an assumption that is based more on repetition than on self-reflection. Because, if we reflect (most of us, anyway) on what we would do with, say, three grand when we had nothing, we know, most of us, that we would want to 'invest' our money for the longer term and to make it go as far as possible. We'd want to use it to enable us to have a regular income and to feel like worthwhile members of society. So why do we think that others are so different from us?



And indeed, I would go with the next move in the article I've been citing:

A monthly allowance, enough to live off, without any outside control
on whether you spend it well or whether you even deserve it. No jungle
of extra charges, benefits, rebates - all of which cost tons to
implement. At most with some extras for the elderly, unemployed and
disabled.



The basic income - it is an idea whose time has come.
 Now I've known about basic income for a long while -it's been Green Party policy since the 1970s (when it was the Ecology Party) and I wrote one of my first practical theology papers in 1982 on unemployment in which one of the conclusions was that a citizen's income would be theologically justified. What i didn't know until this article is that there had been a real-life experiment in Canada which was cancelled for political reasons with the data unanalysed until recently. And the results are conversant with what we would probably predict for ourselves on reflection on ourselves rather than on presuming on the actions and attitudes of other people (hooking our 'us and them' negativity).

‘Politicians feared that people would stop working, and that they
would have lots of children to increase their income,’ professor Forget says.










You can find one of her lectures here.

Yet the opposite happened: the average marital age went up while
the birth rate went down. The Mincome cohort had better school
completion records. The total amount of work hours decreased by only
13%. Breadwinners hardly cut down on their hours, women used the basic
income for a couple of months of maternity leave and young people used
it to do some extra studying. Forget’s most remarkable discovery is that hospital visits went down by 8,5%.
 The article goes on to consider whether it would be affordable -it sounds like it would be so expensive. But then again ....

It would allow us to cut most of the benefits and supervision programs
that the current social welfare system necessitates. Many tax rebates
would be redundant. Further financing could come from (higher) taxing of
capital, pollution and consumption. [...] Holland, has 16.8 million inhabitants. Its poverty line is set at $1,300
a month. This would make for a reasonable basic income. Some simple
math would set the cost on 193.5 billion euro annually, about 30% of our
national GDP. That’s an astronomically high figure. But remember: the
government already controls more than half of our GDP. It does not keep
the Netherlands from being one of the richest, most competitive and
happiest countries in the world.
 Remember too, that such a policy would mean that employers would offer wages over and above a basic income -reducing their direct wage bills. Also the apparatus of control, surveillance and processing of social security would be hugely reduced. And if the Mincome experiment panned out, health costs would be likely to fall somewhat. I could see it making an interesting difference to education -what price student loans with less living costs needed?

Worth thinking about, surely?

PS. this RSA video with Daniel Pink showcasing research on motivations raises the tantalising possibility that a basic income could be the most creative and liberating thing we could do with our society.

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