The mythical European Umma |

There are some issues that we need not to be fanning the flames of potential hatred and anxiety. This is one of them. And it is worrying that some sections of would-be opinion-forming are keen to ramp up anxiety in order to sell their wares: "the Eurabia myth is one of the most persistent and dangerous of recent years – and the Daily Telegraph fanned the controversy this month with its claims that it had carried out an investigation which revealed that the EU's Muslim population would jump from the current 4-5% to an improbable 20% by 2050."
If that were true, then sure: it would need debate and policy to think about how we respond and plan properly. But is it true? Well, the title of this opinion piece probably clues you in to the author's take (and he has a Muslim-background name, btw). The mythical European Umma | Khaled Diab | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk
But then look at the rebuttal:

Most projections that foresee a massive increase in Europe's Muslim population are based on certain assumptions... that recent immigration trends will continue indefinitely ... that European Muslims will continue to have a significantly higher fertility rate than the population at large. ...

The article places a credible question against the former in the light of the way migration policy is already moving in the EU. The second is also questionable because the evidence is that fertility rates are already starting to converge with Euro average.

I would add that the background of the author gives pause for thought: he is clearly not in favour of an Islamification of Europe. And like previous waves of migration, I'm not sure that we should expect that Muslim background people should retain strongn religiosity any more than Irish and Italians in the early and mid 20th centuries. The evidence in Muslim- majority countries seems to be that religiosity beyond the cultural probably is not much more than in many European societies. This would suggest, I propose, that many nominally Muslim families will increasingly see their sons and daughters and beyond adopt the patterns of life and politics of those around them with a 'return' to Islam for cultural occasions. Without the support of an Islamic state to bolster that, it seems to be the likely outcome to me. The other way, ironically, for the kind of religiosity that the Torygraph fears to be held in place or even to grow is, ironically, to make a big issue of it and so encourage people to hunker down into religious identities.

Those who know Bradford well enough will have seen all of the above at work. When you have heard a Muslim cynically comment on the building of a swanky new Masjid near Bradford centre, then there is pause for thought. His comment was to the effect that he doubted there would be enough of the rising generation sufficiently religiously observant to fill it in 20 years time. Diab suggests, in fact:

I suspect that the future cultural fault lines in Europe will not run along traditional religious lines, but will pit believers against non-believers, creating a kind unity of purpose between conservative Muslims and Christians intent on preserving faith in a "Godless Europe".

Actually, I doubt that, except in informal de-facto terms, perhaps. THere's too much exclusivism on both wings to make that easy. And in any case, I think there are signs that Christians are beginning to learn the lessons about Enlightenment captivity and to see secularisms as just as 'religious' in their own way as religions. If that is so then there won't appear to be much to choose between Islams or secularisms; they'd both be badly-founded thought systems to be applauded and critiqued by gospel standards as they merited.